Birth Model¶

Data¶

To obtain the population data for each year, we used two tables from Statistics Canada:

Past Data: 1999 - 2021¶

For past years, we used Table 17-10-00005-01 from Statistics Canada. This is data that the Canadian government collects and publishes on the population of the country, stratified by different variables.

The *.csv file can be downloaded from here: 17100005-eng.zip

and is saved as: LEAP/leap/original_data/17100005.csv.

The relevant columns are:

Column	Type	Description
`REF_DATE`	`int`	the calendar year
`AGE_GROUP`	`str`	the age of the person in years
`GEO`	`str`	the province or terriroty full name
`SEX`	`str`	one of “Both sexes”, “Females”, or “Males”
`VALUE`	`int`	the population in that year, province, sex, and age group

Projected Data: 2021 - 2065¶

For future years, we used Table 17-10-0057-01 from Statistics Canada. Statistic Canada provides projected population data based on different projection scenarios.

The *.csv file can be downloaded from here: 17100057-eng.zip

and is saved as: LEAP/leap/original_data/17100057.csv.

The relevant columns are:

Column	Type	Description
`REF_DATE`	`int`	the calendar year
`AGE_GROUP`	`str`	the age of the person in years
`GEO`	`str`	the province or terriroty full name
`Sex`	`str`	one of “Both sexes”, “Females”, or “Males”
`Projection scenario`	`str`	the projection scenario used to model population growth: `LG`: low-growth projection `HG`: high-growth projection `M1`: medium-growth 1 projection `M2`: medium-growth 2 projection `M3`: medium-growth 3 projection `M4`: medium-growth 4 projection `M5`: medium-growth 5 projection `M6`: medium-growth 6 projection `FA`: fast-aging projection `SA`: slow-aging projection
`VALUE`	`int`	the population in that year, province, sex, age group, and projection scenario

Processed Data¶

The two source tables are combined by leap/data_generation/birth_data.py into a single processed file saved as: leap/processed_data/birth/birth_estimate.csv.

Past data (from 17100005.csv) covers years 1999 onwards using actual population counts. Projected data (from 17100057.csv) begins the year after the last available past year and covers projections up to 2065. In the projected source file, VALUE is stored in thousands and is multiplied by 1000 during processing.

For both sources, only the AGE_GROUP = 0 (newborns) rows are used. The N column represents the total number of births (both sexes combined), and prop_male is derived as the number of male births divided by the total.

Column	Type	Description
`year`	`int`	the calendar year
`province`	`str`	the 2-letter province or territory ID (e.g., `BC` = British Columbia, `AB` = Alberta, `CA` = Canada)
`N`	`int`	the total number of births (both sexes) in that year and province
`prop_male`	`float`	the proportion of births that are male
`projection_scenario`	`str`	`past` for historical data, or one of the projection scenario IDs for future data: `LG`: low-growth projection `HG`: high-growth projection `M1`: medium-growth 1 projection `M2`: medium-growth 2 projection `M3`: medium-growth 3 projection `M4`: medium-growth 4 projection `M5`: medium-growth 5 projection `M6`: medium-growth 6 projection `FA`: fast-aging projection `SA`: slow-aging projection